TAX · REFUND

Tax Refund Estimator

Estimate whether you'll receive a federal tax refund or owe a balance. Factors in 2026 brackets, standard deduction, child tax credits, and withholding.

LAST REVIEWED · APR 10, 2026 · BY M. REYES, CPA
You need
$1,886
Tax RefundReset
Annual Income
$75,000
$10K$500K
Filing Status
Total WithholdingAll W-2 withholding for the year
$10,000
$0$100K
DependentsQualifying children under 17
Other CreditsEducation, energy, etc.
$0
$0$10K
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Refund or balance due?

Your tax refund (or balance due) is simply: total withholding minus total tax liability. If your employer withheld more than you owe, the IRS sends back the difference. If they withheld less, you write a check.

A big refund isn't always good

A $3,000 refund means you gave the IRS a $3,000 interest-free loan for the year. That's $250/month that could have been in your savings account earning interest. The ideal refund is close to $0 — meaning your withholding matched your liability.

How credits reduce your tax bill

Tax credits are dollar-for-dollar reductions of your tax liability. The child tax credit ($2,000/child) is partially refundable — meaning you can receive up to $1,700 per child even if your tax liability is zero.

Methodology. Calculates total federal tax liability using 2026 brackets and the standard deduction. Subtracts child tax credits ($2,000/qualifying child) and other credits. Compares against total withholding to determine refund or balance due.

Sources

  • IRS Revenue Procedure 2025-11 (2026 tax parameters)
  • IRS Publication 17 (Your Federal Income Tax)
  • IRS Form 1040 instructions (2026)
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Frequently asked questions

When will I get my refund? +
The IRS issues most e-filed refunds within 21 days. Paper returns take 6-8 weeks. Refunds claiming the EITC or Additional Child Tax Credit are held until mid-February by law.
Why is my refund smaller than last year? +
Common reasons: a raise pushed you into a higher bracket, you lost a deduction or credit (child aged out), your withholding changed, or tax law provisions expired.
Should I adjust my W-4 if I'm getting a big refund? +
Yes. Use the IRS Withholding Calculator (or our version above) to find the right withholding. Reducing over-withholding puts more money in each paycheck.
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